Sunday, April 20, 2008

Examining Some Scenario's

From PE.com:

If the possibilities for the Eagles in next weekend's NFL draft are, indeed, virtually endless, then it's time to discuss some of them. What makes sense for a football team that believes it is again ready to compete at the very top of the league's food chain? Should the Eagles be aggressive and package draft picks and try to get one or two "guys" they think are difference makers? Should the team stand relatively pat and draft from the pool of players that fall to their 11 slots? Should the Eagles deal players and draft picks this year for favorable draft selections in the future?

I've been obsessed with the draft since the major portion of free agency concluded. The Eagles have an elaborate plan that they have worked to execute since the 2007 season was over. So they went into free agency and went right for the jugular on the first weekend, signing cornerback Asante Samuel and defensive end Chris Clemons.

The remainder of free agency was spent adding niche pieces – competition on the roster at fullback (Dan Klecko), linebacker (Rocky Boiman) and tight end (Kris Wilson), keeping in mind that those players can help on special teams, too. Along the way the Eagles released veteran linebacker Takeo Spikes and made sure to lock up tight end L.J. Smith.

Now what? Here are some scenarios to consider …

STAY AT 19

If the Eagles stay at 19, what kinds of players are on the board? If the mock drafts are to be believed, the Eagles would have the choice of the fourth or fifth offensive tackle, the third or fourth defensive end, the third or fourth defensive tackle, probably the fourth cornerback, the first or second safety, maybe the second or third wide receiver and likely the third or fourth running back.

Would the Ealges be drafting, then, a "special" player? Maybe. That remains to be seen. The point is, they won't be drafting the player who is deemed "the best" player at that position in this draft.

So you have to consider the kind of player the Eagles are going to get at 19. They've gone through their board many, many times, and have assigned value to each of the players in this draft. They have starred the "first-round-worthy" players and know that, in their minds, exactly how many players on which they would use a first-round pick in this draft.

Maybe the Eagles think there are only 15 players worthy of a first-round pick in the draft and are planning to move up and draft one. Maybe the Eagles think there are 25 players worthy, and will either move back in the first round or stay put or go get a special one or even deal some of those extra draft picks for two selections in round one.

But we're talking about 19. The mock drafts have been all over the place on this one. It could be an offensive lineman. It could be a safety. It could be a defensive end. It could be a wide receiver. It could be just about anything, but I'd be willing to say with strong conviction that the Eagles won't take a quarterback or a linebacker in this first round.

Then again, Andy Reid often is as unpredictable as any coach in the NFL when it comes to the draft.

PACKAGE PICKS AND MOVE UP

Reid has never been shy about taking this approach, but to do so would cost the Eagles their first-round pick, a second-round pick and probably a fourth-rounder. Or, as many fans have suggested, the Eagles could send a player and the 19th pick to a team in the top 10-13 and draft … who, exactly?

I'm not enough of a draft aficionado to offer a suggestion on the "must-have" player. I will say that if the Eagles put together a package and go up in the first round, they expect the draft pick to step in and contribute right away in the 2008 season. Maybe not as an immediate starter, but certainly as a player who can help win as a rookie.

If the Eagles are willing to pay a steep price to go up and get one of the top 10 picks who is "falling," or to go get the player they must have, it is reasonable to think he can play as a rookie.

LOAD UP ON DAY ONE?

It isn't just the first round to think about here. While the draft's first day is limited to two round, the Eagles may be able to get up into the second round for an extra pick and then come away with three selections in the first day. With a couple of fourth-round picks – that the Eagles can trade (one is a compensatory pick and cannot be dealt) – and four sixth-round picks – two of which the Eagles can trade (two are compensatory picks) – Reid and Co. are in a position of power through the middle rounds.

What it means to you is that you can't go to sleep after the first round or even the first day. I expect Reid to look to be as aggressive as possible from the start through the finish of this draft. I expect moves to be made.

FOCUS ON OFFENSE

Could it be that the Eagles made their power moves in free agency to aid the defense and are planning to use the draft to impact the offense? Surely, the offense needs to be much better than last year, and while the team has made some moves to get better there – retaining Smith, getting Donovan McNabb another year healthier, adding Klecko and Wilson – there are legitimate questions as to whether those moves – in the case of McNabb, expectations rather than moves – are enough.

Would the Eagles, for example, make a play for a wide receiver in the draft? The mock drafts suggest that Michigan State's Devin Thomas is the cream of the crop and a possible draft pick to Buffalo at No. 11 in the first round. Behind Thomas are players like Texas' Limas Sweed, Cal's DeSean Jackson, Indiana's James Hardy, Oklahoma's Malcolm Kelly and then a whole group that will probably be off the board between the time Thomas goes and the end of the third round.

Look, if you are considering every option, you have to think about making some kind of deal for a veteran wide receiver. In theory, just about every player's name who is even remotely available has been discussed at a high level among a lot of teams, so why not think about it here?

If you were to address needs for this offense, you would have to keep wide receiver near the top of the list. The Eagles need to put the ball in the end zone more than they did last season. They have to look at every scenario and, I know, they are doing just that.

So, go ahead and dream big. This is the time to do so. The draft is a week away. The Eagles are hammering away at the final, final, final preparations. It's time to get very excited about the week ahead. The phone lines are humming and the next moves are extraordinarily important for this franchise.

The plan the Eagles laid out long ago is nearly at its final chapter. So far, the Eagles have played a strong game in the offseason. But they still have some missing pieces and they still have moves and deals that need to get done. It all happens right in front of our eyes in the next week.


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